Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 184.329506 223.170333 271.094457 335.617347 421.867889 5.356720e+02 7.015841e+02
2025-05-04 142.265232 188.140140 252.120637 351.494944 509.223754 7.643511e+02 1.243980e+03
2025-05-11 117.047170 164.419196 236.431721 360.838687 587.243751 1.024038e+03 2.074423e+03
2025-05-18 99.412942 146.006399 221.586502 363.557887 653.011917 1.306578e+03 3.314458e+03
2025-05-25 85.489831 129.840628 205.450500 357.214874 697.163392 1.579065e+03 5.024858e+03
2025-06-01 74.520643 116.227563 190.224388 347.096395 727.953228 1.848354e+03 7.423746e+03
2025-06-08 65.847798 104.980243 176.762769 336.217834 751.864579 2.126198e+03 1.090818e+04
2025-06-15 63.347537 104.161105 182.666175 369.367018 911.454589 3.077242e+03 2.526738e+04
2025-06-22 58.372470 97.955211 176.543426 372.379815 986.390191 3.821463e+03 4.882223e+04
2025-06-29 54.936702 94.150739 174.625199 385.406299 1104.754342 5.044762e+03 1.242381e+05
2025-07-06 50.767791 88.333097 167.296519 381.882518 1163.193283 6.081956e+03 3.014774e+05
2025-07-13 49.585920 88.334602 172.917857 416.787346 1405.833209 9.415748e+03 3.638216e+06
2025-07-20 47.912601 87.269839 176.327021 448.388404 1680.624138 1.500296e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 45.935261 85.303859 177.255843 473.226245 1961.272512 2.388024e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 43.648473 82.356336 175.172441 487.436273 2208.974884 3.678679e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 41.194736 78.730362 170.679890 491.565330 2406.276270 5.438692e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 38.510792 74.279228 163.257154 482.176406 2501.652916 7.309703e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 35.918524 69.780021 155.041547 467.212992 2542.069155 9.351292e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 33.557410 65.597646 147.121124 451.182951 2560.846217 1.177117e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 33.385082 66.572768 153.925435 500.232278 3284.653941 3.886245e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 31.923038 64.275571 150.854404 504.719171 3578.305844 8.215685e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 30.949626 63.079659 150.891872 524.173148 4119.236977 3.211049e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 29.461849 60.459578 146.189752 518.902045 4334.945164 9.802341e+06 NaN